Deutsche bank says solar could be at grid parity in most global markets within two years. Solar has already reached grid parity in 10 states that are. Solar grid parity expected by 2017 predicts deutsche bank. Deutsche bank predicts second solar gold rush greentech media. For decades, grid parity has been the holy grail of the solar industry.
Sep 10, 2012 grid parity is the holy grail for renewable energy sources and it looks like the germans may finally be reaching it. Deutsche bank sees all 50 us states at solar grid parity by 2016 setting the scene for a dramatic increase in the uptake in household and commercial rooftop solar in the worlds biggest economy. Giles parkinson of the australianbased website reports. This means in the sunnier regions the equivalent cost of power from the best rooftop solar panels is now equal to or less than the retail price of power from the grid. Solar leasing is a financing structure for rooftop solar systems in which the developer solar lessor owns, installs, and operates a rooftop solar system on the site hosts property the site host solar lessee pays for the solar systems through monthly installments. Mar 02, 2015 by 2016, using our cost estimates, nearly 47 states would be at grid parity in the us, in our view.
The economic viability of battery storage for residential solar. A more detailed enumeration by state is given for the united states. Deutsche bank sees all 50 us states at solar grid parity by 2016 setting the scene for a dramatic increase in the uptake in household and commercial rooftop solar. In fact, solar grid parity is expected to be in up to 80% of the global market by 2017, with even the falling price for oil doing little to slow this shifting energy dynamic. Grid parity is a moving target solar market parity spain. Archived pdf from the original on 21 november 2014. Grid parity is when the cost of solar equals the cost of conventional electricity alternatives.
Grid parity or socket parity occurs when an alternative energy source can generate power at a levelized cost of electricity lcoe that is less than or equal to the price of power from the electricity grid. Why electric utilities should struggle to sleep at night coal power plants such as this one in page, ariz. There has recently been a rash of articles saying that wind and solar have reached grid parity, that is, the cost of electricity generated with them is as cheap as or cheaper than electricity. Solar pv at grid parity in 10 states according to deutsche.
Well, your mileage may vary, but in many states, we are there now. Solar pv at grid parity in 10 states according to deutsche bank photo source. Solar at grid parity in most of world by 2017 reneweconomy. German bank reports solar power cost in india and italy has. Deutsche bank md expects grid parity ahead for mexican solar pv market published by solarplaza tuesday 17 february 2015. Spectrumefficient solar energy for dispatchable electricity or dense fuels howard m. As a result, widespread grid parity for wind and solar are generally predicted for the time between. Protection against arc and hot spot damage superior lowlight performance due to antireflective nanocoating technology. The economics of solar investment pdf download 5 mb. On october 27, gw solar institute experts were featured in a bloomberg bna article on solar energy becoming cost competitive with electricity generated by coal and natural gas.
Apr 04, 2017 there has recently been a rash of articles saying that wind and solar have reached grid parity, that is, the cost of electricity generated with them is as cheap as or cheaper than electricity. Practical roadmaps to grid parity for the target countries, representing the major eu pv markets andor markets with the highest development potential. While these factors are strongly in favor of a large increase in grid integrated solar energy systems, some observers have expressed concern that rapid growth in grid connected solar energy systems poses significant challenges to grid. Grid parity might be the most important part of stopping climate change. If global electricity prices were to increase at 3% per year and cost reduction occurred at 515% cagr, solar would achieve grid parity in an additional 30% of target markets globally. Key themes 1 expect more countries to reach grid parity in 2015. Solar grid parity in all 50 us states by 2016, predicts. Grid parity definition, glossary, details solar mango. Mar 02, 2015 solar pv at grid parity in 80% of globe by 2017. Global power capacity, offgrid solar pv, 200818 source. A gridparity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity. Dec 10, 2015 deep dive the factors driving wind and solar toward grid parity a new analysis shows when, where, and why renewables can be costcompetitive. Deutsche bank is a leading clientcentric global universal bank serving 28 million clients worldwide.
Deutsche bank predicts solar energy will achieve grid. We are clearly working hard, particularly at both phase 1 and phase 3, but with some advances in phase 2 as well. Solar grid parity describes the moment when electricity from solar power is less costly than electricity from the existing grid. I have no doubt that doomers and pronukes and procoals will use this chaos to justify their wrong opinions and flawed analysis. Going forward, solar power is now economically beneficial in a number of regions and industry is financially motivated to enter ppa with new solar power plants. Deutsche bank sees all 50 us states at solar grid parity by. Various analyses of the economics of solar pv versus grid power have inferred that solar pv will achieve grid parity at different points in time for different regions of the world. It should also mean equal without subsidies like f eed i n t ariffs fit, net metering, and tax credits. Grid parity or socket parity occurs when an alternative energy source can generate power at a levelized cost of electricity lcoe that is less than or equal to the price of purchasing power from the electricity grid. Considerations for solar energy technologies to grid price parity. Apr 08, 20 a recent deutsche bank report concludes that solar power has now reached grid parity, meaning that it costs the same as electricity from the power grid, in italy and india where the governments. Deutsche bank estimates that grid parity for solar even without the benefit of subsidieshas already occurred in 14 u. Deutsche bank solar energy is approaching grid parity. Despite the recent drop in oil price, we expect solar electricity to become competitive with retail electricity in an increasing number of markets globally due to declining solar panel costs as well as improving financing and customer acquisition costs.
German bank reports solar power cost in india and italy. Investment bank deutsche bank is predicting that solar systems will be at grid parity in up to 80 per cent of the global market within two years, and says the collapse in the oil price will do little to slow down the solar. Grid parity might be the most important part of stopping climate change you never hear about on the news. Grid parity analysis of solar photovoltaic systems in germany. Grid parity depends on what sort of solar, on whose grid, and in what location.
Referencing a deutsche bank report, bloomberg announced that if the investment tax credit itc of 30 percent is extended beyond 2016, solar energy in 47 states would achieve price parity with electricity from conventional sources in 2016. Oct 29, 2014 solar has already reached grid parity in 10 states that are responsible for 90 percent of u. Deutsche bank says solar is currently competitive without subsidies in at least nineteen markets globally, and it expects more markets to reach grid parity in 2014 as solar system prices decline. Its the mythical transition point when solar suddenly becomes cheaper than the grid, opening up a world of new demand and. Deutsche bank also predicts solar energy will be at grid parity in up to 80 percent of the world by the end of 2017.
A new report from a mena region bank shows that solar will be at grid parity within two years in 80% of the world. Please take up your dispute about solar power grid parity with deutsche bank s research department. As pv systems do not use fuel and are largely maintenancefree, the levelized cost of electricity lcoe is dominated almost entirely by the capital cost of the system. According to the latest report from gtm research, u. The term is most commonly used when discussing renewable energy sources, notably solar power and wind power. Within 15 years, solar will be a dominant energy source. The factors driving wind and solar toward grid parity. Eia, gwec, deutsche bank estimates click to enlarge. Moreover, we believe some of the grid and financing constraints that have inhibited growth so far are set to improve in 2014. Deutsche bank sees all 50 us states at solar grid parity.
Investment bank deutsche bank is predicting that solar systems will be at grid parity in up to 80 per cent of the global market within 2 years, and says the collapse in the oil price will do little to slow down the solar juggernaut. Solar energy has blown past grid parity the motley fool. Grid parity or socket parity occurs when an alternative energy source can generate power at a. Despite the recent drop in oil price, we expect solar electricity to becomecompetitive with retail electricity in an increasing number of markets. Deutsche bank says solar is approaching grid parity. Solar is achieving grid parity in a number of new markets globally and we expect companies involved in project developmentfinancing to benefit the most from the significant volume growth over the next few years. Vishal shah is a leading expert in the field of clean energy and former managing director of deutsche bank. The article builds on deutsche bank expert vishal shahs recent research note claiming that declining solar costs could reach grid parity in 47 states if the 30 percent investment tax credit was. With the 30% investment tax credit see below currently in place, it is estimated that 47 states will reach grid parity by 2016.
Current support schemes will be examined and their implied costs until grid parity will be forecasted. Grid parity depends upon whether you are calculating from the point of view of a. Deutsche bank securities, speaking at a semi new england. International market entry in the photovoltaic industry. Solar pv will reach grid parity in 58 years, but an industry shakeout will occur over the next couple of years, and some good companies will go under. A 2015 report by deutsche bank predicts that solar pv generation systems will be at grid parity in up to 80% of the global market within two years see figure 2.
First, a pv system can compete at grid parity level. These incentives have helped solar approach grid parity with conventional energy sources in a number of markets. These data suggest we have reached solar grid parity in the united states and represent an important step towards ensuring a renewable source of energy. Solar grid parity in all 50 us states by 2016, predicts deutsche bank posted on october 31, 2014 by stlane rooftop solar pv will reach grid parity in 50 us states by 2016 up from just 10 now setting the scene for a dramatic increase in the uptake in household and commercial rooftop solar in the worlds biggest economy. Solar grid parity is happening within two years according to deutsche bank, a global financial institution based in germany. Therefore, achieving parity with onshore wind power seems. Oct 27, 2014 deutsche bank sees all 50 us states at solar grid parity by 2016 setting the scene for a dramatic increase in the uptake in household and commercial rooftop solar in the worlds biggest economy. Deutsche bank predicts that solar power will be at grid parity in up to 80 per cent of the world within 2 years, giles parkinson of reneweconomy. Deutsche bank expects pv electricity to achieve grid parity when alternative energy sources can generate power at a levelized cost of electricity lcoe less than or equal to the price of the existing electricity grid in up to 80% of global markets within two years. Nearly every cost for installing solar, from panels to inverters, is on the decline. Deutsche bank predicts solar grid parity in 80% of global. Grid parity for solar pv refers to a point where its cost can compete with that of conventional grid power without the consideration of any external incentives. Renewable energy agency, united nations statistics division, world bank and world health organisation.
Even if the tax credit were reduced to a level of 10%, bloomberg predicts that by 2016, at least 36 states will have reached grid parity for solar. Solar pv will narrowly beat onshore wind to wholesale grid parity in europe, according to a new report. Germany has led the world in solar power since passing its renewable energy. Solar plusbattery grid parity is here already or coming soon for a rapidly growing minority of utility customers, raising the prospect of widespread grid defection. Pv market will be especially attractive for entry as growth in european markets. A recent report proclaimed that solar power will reach grid parity in most of the united states by 2016. It predicts the us market will soar to 16gw a year, solar costs will continue to fall and the slump in oil. Solar pv business models and key policy considerations. In 2015, deutsche bank has predicted that solar systems will be at grid parity in up to 80% of the global market by. Countries where solar pv achieved grid parity residential, industrial or commercial. The interactive grid parity map for solar energy shows those states that are enjoying solar savings or at least at solar breakeven.
Although some areas could hit wholesale grid parity by as soon as 2018, most largescale. The idea is that once solar hits this ultimate test of affordability, it will begin to displace utility electricity. German bank reports solar power cost in india and italy has reached grid parity 10 april 20, by bob yirka solarkraftwerk waldpolenz, the first solar 40mw cdte. Investment bank deutsche bank is predicting that solar systems will be at grid parity in up to 80 per cent of the global market within 2 years, and says the collapse in the oil price will do. Pv modules, grid parity could occur as early as 2012. This point of grid parity is a moving target but is moving closer in a number of places.
Factors such as amount of sunlight, differences in financing conditions, market regulation and existing electricity prices and installation costs in different locations contribute to the lcoe and when a region reaches grid parity. According to deutsche bank right now, the cost of a rooftop solar photovoltaic pv system has reached grid parity which means it costs the. Gridparity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic pv diffusion. Considerations for solar energy technologies to make progress towards grid price parity. Deutsche bank provides commercial and investment banking, retail banking, transaction banking and asset and wealth management products and services to corporations, governments, institutional investors, small and mediumsized businesses, and private individuals. Mapping solar grid parity institute for local selfreliance. Solar pv has recently been handed a huge responsibility, and solar proponents may now rejoice as the world finally expects solar power to fill the role of the global electricity providing powerhouse. Most recently, vishal shah, trusted deutsche bank analyst, released his 2015 report on the future of solar energy, claiming solar will reach grid parity. Definition of gridparity for photovoltaics and development. Its a tipping point, when democratization of the electricity system not only makes political and economic sense, but becomes more competitive than using utilitydelivered electricity. Commonly acknowledged definition of grid parity, validated by the pv community. Page 3 2 us based distributed generation business models are set to become more. Deutsche bank, as of february 2015 see file description.
Technological developments are close to creating a tipping point in the energy industry, with off grid. Solar power has reached grid parity in india and italy. Rooftop solar pv will reach grid parity in 50 us states by 2016 up from just 10 now setting the scene for a dramatic increase in the uptake in household and commercial rooftop solar in the. Mar 31, 2016 when will rooftop solar be cheaper than the grid. Introduction to grid parity and levelised cost of electricity. Grid parity, rate design and net metering risk, 20 u. Apr 10, 20 german bank reports solar power cost in india and italy has reached grid parity. International market entry in the photovoltaic industry 7. German bank reports solar power cost in india and italy has reached grid parity. According to market research of deutsche bank, solar energy is now the cheapest source of electricity in chile and newly installed pv capacity could exceed 1 gw in 2015. Solar to beat wind to wholesale grid parity in europe report. Grid parity depends upon whether you are calculating from the point. Deutsche bank md expects grid parity ahead for mexican solar pv market.
Whenever you read or hear about solar energy, the topic of grid parity is one that is consistently brought up. In light of our upcoming solar market parity europe conference, we interviewed vishal shah, the senior solar analyst with steady footing in wall street and clear eyes on the global solar industry. Once the red states follow, our nation will have reached grid parity as a whole. My only assumption has been that, given the uks weather, latitude, and the price of electricity, there will be a large number of other countries that achieve solar power grid parity. The year of solar grid parity march, 20 by solarfeeds editorial team in knowledge base because of strong demand for rooftop solar forecast this year in key markets and further drops in pricing, deutsche bank believes the solar industry will transition from subsidized to sustainable in 2014. The year of solar grid parity solarfeeds marketplace. A 2015 study by deutsche bank predicts solar energy will be at grid. The report says that the number of markets where solar is at grid parity will double over the next 35 years. Solar pv grid parity i could contend that mexico is the initial poster boy in the grid parity stakes with hermosillo, like las palmas in spain, boasting a top rating of six bars, or full grid parity, because the highest photovoltaic lcoe is lower than the standard price of retail electricity, or the lowest peak electricity cost. The global solar industry is in the midst of another inflection point that sets the stage for the beginning of the grid parity era, where solar is at equal cost or cheaper than traditional energy sources, according to a new report from deutsche bank. Grid parity is most commonly used in the field of solar power, and most specifically when referring to solar photovoltaics pv. We believe the underlying economics of the sector have improved significantly and we may be just at the beginning of the grid parity era, according to db, low natural gas prices may make large utility scale solar deployments in the us less attractive for now, but we remain bullish about rapid development of utility scale solar in several international markets over the next 35 years. For certain customers, including many customer segments in hawaii, grid parity is here today.
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